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Sunday 29 January 2012

Growth And Decay

According to the International Monetary Fund, Asia and the Sub Continent are the growth engines of the new world economy. However even there, some are performing better than others. For instance Pakistan's economy grew last year by 2.4% last year according to the IMF. These are figures that the moribund economies of the UK and other European countries would do anything for.

But, and there's always a 'butt' (hah ha!) in Pakistan, the required rate to keep unemployment from rising is at least 7% pa. As it is, 2.4% is actually one of the lowest in the region with the other 'players' India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh all performing far better.

2011 Real GDP growth (projected):
  • China: 9.5%
  • India: 7.8%
  • Sri Lanka: 7.0%
  • Bangladesh: 6.3%
  • Pakistan: 2.4%*
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
*Actual growth taken from Pakistan Economic Survey

Even with this growth rate, Pakistan's political and economic problems continue, with its structural problems just increasing - for instance in a country of 180 million, less than 1% of people pay income tax. Out of even that low benchmark, billions of rupees of the government tax revenue never even make it into the treasury coffers because of waste and corruption. Industrial production and exports are hampered by crippling bureaucracy, bribery, and energy shortages, often leading to violent protests.

Pakistanis - Up To Their Necks In It - As Usual
Pakistanis - Up To Their Necks In It - As Usual

If anything the state sector is hampered even more by these and other issues, and the flagship public sector enterprises such as Pakistan International Airlines and Pakistan Railways, are all failing due to chronic mismanagement and blatant inefficiencies .... cronyism in job distribution is rife.

When you add in the political chaos with disputes between the civilian government and the armed forces, the continual rise of the Taliban (aided by the military intelligence ISI), and rapid and uncontrolled population growth, and it appears that even the signs of economic growth, just can't hide the whiff of continued political and social decay.

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